Comments on: Implementing the Lean Smart Grid http://www.pennwellblogs.com/calm/2009-10-05/implementing-the-lean-smart-grid/ Thu, 17 May 2012 04:21:10 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Roger Anderson http://www.pennwellblogs.com/calm/2009-10-05/implementing-the-lean-smart-grid/#comment-20 Roger Anderson Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:10:48 +0000 http://www.pennwellblogs.com/calm/2009-10-05/implementing-the-lean-smart-grid/#comment-20 Nathan, As you can see from my Scientific American article of 1998 (Anderson, R.N., Oil Production in the 21st Century, Scientific American, 278, p. 86-91, 1998.), I used to agree with you. However, we have lost several generations of skilled scientists and engineers from the oil industry since then, and even the big ultra-deepwater discoveries of 2009 will not allow us to increase much beyond the current 85 million barrels a day of global demand (http://www.aspo-usa.com/archives/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=350&Itemid=91 ). Perhaps a compromise would be to call it plateau oil rather than peak oil? That trend, combined with Global Climate Change, is driving us to the electric economy, and in the long run, that will preserve the precious oil for the more important uses of hydrocarbons such as plastics, roads, and fertilizers. All said, there surely will be a need for all the oil, gas, and electricity we can find, produce and generate as China and India modernize their economies. My two cents worth, and thanks for your comment. Roger Nathan, As you can see from my Scientific American article of 1998 (Anderson, R.N., Oil Production in the 21st Century, Scientific American, 278, p. 86-91, 1998.), I used to agree with you. However, we have lost several generations of skilled scientists and engineers from the oil industry since then, and even the big ultra-deepwater discoveries of 2009 will not allow us to increase much beyond the current 85 million barrels a day of global demand (http://www.aspo-usa.com/archives/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=350&Itemid=91 ). Perhaps a compromise would be to call it plateau oil rather than peak oil?

That trend, combined with Global Climate Change, is driving us to the electric economy, and in the long run, that will preserve the precious oil for the more important uses of hydrocarbons such as plastics, roads, and fertilizers. All said, there surely will be a need for all the oil, gas, and electricity we can find, produce and generate as China and India modernize their economies. My two cents worth, and thanks for your comment. Roger

]]> By: Nathan Edmonson http://www.pennwellblogs.com/calm/2009-10-05/implementing-the-lean-smart-grid/#comment-19 Nathan Edmonson Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:58:43 +0000 http://www.pennwellblogs.com/calm/2009-10-05/implementing-the-lean-smart-grid/#comment-19 Peak oil has been fast approaching at least since 1920, and likely from before, as even a casual history of the petroleum industry reveals. With the aid of new discoveries, and especially with the aid of advancing technology, the industry has repeatedly refuted the peak oil concept. The most compelling argument in favor of peak oil now seems to rest on the absolute size of world demand, but there is nothing new about this element of the argument; there was much appeal to absolute size by peak oil believers in the 1970s, for example. To worry about peak oil now seems alarmist in light of history. Recognition of future possibilities for oil production might take inspiration from recent history of natural gas production. Thanks to technological advance which has resulted in substantial recent growth is gas production, North American (especially U.S.) gas production is nowseen as rising beyond the point of U.S. self-sufficiency to the point of the U.S. becoming a net has exporter. Making the power grid more efficient is certainly an anticipated application of technology. Why not look closely at technological possibilities affecting oil production? Peak oil has been fast approaching at least since 1920, and likely from before, as even a casual history of the petroleum industry reveals. With the aid of new discoveries, and especially with the aid of advancing technology, the industry has repeatedly refuted the peak oil concept. The most compelling argument in favor of peak oil now seems to rest on the absolute size of world demand, but there is nothing new about this element of the argument; there was much appeal to absolute size by peak oil believers in the 1970s, for example. To worry about peak oil now seems alarmist in light of history.

Recognition of future possibilities for oil production might take inspiration from recent history of natural gas production. Thanks to technological advance which has resulted in substantial recent growth is gas production, North American (especially U.S.) gas production is nowseen as rising beyond the point of U.S. self-sufficiency to the point of the U.S. becoming a net has exporter.

Making the power grid more efficient is certainly an anticipated application of technology. Why not look closely at technological possibilities affecting oil production?

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