Last week, in this space, I referred to T. Boone Pickens as a “self-serving energy messiah.”
That was not a criticism. That was a compliment. Sort of. Bear with me.
That offhand remark referred to Pickens’s recent, widely publicized “Pickens Plan” for US energy independence (http://www.pickensplan.com/). This plan entails a massive program of substituting wind energy for natural gas burned in power plants and then using the natural gas backed out of power generation to fuel motor vehicles instead of gasoline and diesel. According to the Pickens Plan (if you thought he should it give it a less self-aggrandizing name, you don’t know T. Boone), the resulting oil savings would represent more than a third of US oil imports in 10 years.
Pickens dubs the US the “Saudi Arabia of wind power” (we certainly seem to have the market cornered on windbags), claiming wind power can meet 20% of the nation’s electricity demand—vs. 1% today—in 10 years. The price tag: $1 trillion plus $200 billion for the added transmission facilities.
He also wants to see the 22% of natural gas used to fuel US power stations today diverted to natural gas vehicles (NGVs) as wind power takes up the slack. No word on the price tag or timeframe for this conversion of a big chunk of the US auto fleet and vehicular fueling infrastructure. He does claim, however, that vehicular natural gas can cost $1 per gallon. (Just curious: what kind of a gallon container can you carry natural gas in?) I’m not sure where that estimate comes from, though; the Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition (NGVC) says vehicular natural gas costs, on average, one-third less than gasoline, which puts it at just under $3 per gasoline gallon equivalent.
There are pros and cons for both proposals. Pickens cites the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for both efforts. Replacing oil with natural gas reduces oil import dependence. But at what cost? According to NGVC, converting a vehicle to run on natural gas costs $12,500 to $22,500, of which 50-80% is offset with a federal income tax credit. Just don’t count on finding an NGV filling station within your newly converted NGV’s driving range: Only a few hundred around the country are open to the public. So NGVs are best suited to commercial and public-institution fleets. NGVC estimates that “with the proper government support” (which means taxpayer-subsidized), NGVs could displace 10 billion gallons of gasoline per year. Sounds pretty good until you realize that in 10 years the US is projected to be consuming 350 billion gallons per year of all transportation fuels (yes, folks, it isn’t just gasoline that’s made from all that imported oil).
So is wind power a magic bullet? Sure it is, if you can just find that one spot where the wind blows hard 24/7 and then replicate it in, say, thousands of places around the country. Let me know when you get there—it’s just a little past Oz.
Since the wind doesn’t blow 24/7 anywhere—and energy storage technology isn’t there yet—we’ll have to build relatively inefficient (vs. baseload) backup natural gas power plants to make sure we aren’t all dying of heat stroke by candlelight in the dog days of August.
So what’s the cost for this approach? Some say it could come close to doubling electricity costs vs. that for a new coal-fired plant. Of course, that doesn’t figure in the costs of accommodating the concerns of wildlife conservation groups over the millions of birds, bats, and beneficial bugs pureed by these giant eggbeaters each year. I guess the flashing lights, sirens, and odorants will be a delightful addition to the dulcet thrum of a 100-foot-long propeller blade. And you’d better not think about planting one of these whirlygigs anywhere that it could spoil the view from Teddy Kennedy’s yacht, as the developers of what would have been the first big US offshore wind farm off Cape Cod found out.
But, what the heck, we need all the energy we can get. And I’m a big fan of entrepreneurial capitalism. So it’s OK that Pickens has substantial natural gas holdings. And that he is building the world’s biggest wind farm out in the Texas boondocks. He says he isn’t doing it for the money, since he’s worth billions, but does that mean he will return to the US Treasury the $60 million in tax credits he stands to receive for his wind farm? Does the business plan for that wind farm actually include an ROI?
To his credit, Pickens otherwise makes no bones about being a businessman and benefiting monetarily, even if he says that isn’t his main motive. And even if he says “we can’t drill our way out of this problem,” he nevertheless favors drilling offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
I have no problem with him being a self-serving energy messiah. I think we all should become self-serving energy messiahs. Only last week in this space I was preaching a sermon from the Book of Telecommuting and exhorting others to share the Truth about the Rapturous Joy of Working from Home. That was right after I filled up my gas tank at $77.
Yea, verily, I saw the Light…
July 30th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
A friend of mine just emailed me one of your articles from a while back. I read that one a few more. Really enjoy your blog. Thanks
July 30th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Thanks for the kind words, Josh.
Stay tuned, and I welcome your comments.
August 15th, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Regarding your windy and gassy comments, I support wind energy and the efforts of T. Boone
… also, I wonder if the oil-like residue currently dripping down the sides of the BOK building in Tulsa could be put to any good energy use…maybe Pelli could bring a rag with him when he visits for the Grand Opening….Good Day!
August 16th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Actually, Big Dan, I support anything and everything among energy solutions that is cost-effective.
The point of my blog is threefold:
1. There is no single magic bullet to fix our energy woes–especially in the near term.
2. Everything should be on the table; give all options equal consideration from a net energy, cost, and environmental impact standpoint.
3. Let’s not kid ourselves that any alternative to replacing our current energy and transportation infrastructures won’t cost a lot more than what we have now.
As for the BOK Center (for our non-Tulsa readers, that’s our flashy new sports/entertainment venue designed by world-famous architect Cesar Pelli) and said dripping oil-like residue: Actually, we ought to be collecting that stuff to blend with the asphalt we need to fill all those potholes in the streets leading to the BOK Center. Have you priced asphalt lately?!
Thanks for writing, Big Dan.
September 18th, 2008 at 7:41 am
Enjoyed your Messiah article on wind/gas deliverance via Natural Gas Vehicles.
More facts need to be introduced into the debate so that the public is better informed. Cheasepeake Chairman and Pickens are seen pushing gas as the solution and oil companies fall in with the green solution so that they can be seen as supporters even though alternatives are on even 10% of energy mix. The message based on physical laws and engineering do not get to the Colleges (take the young out of the land of Oz, they will be dealing with and voting on the problem), and to the mature citizens (can be better informed).
Hope you can get this message into the airwaves with simple comparisons (API and oil industry should support).
I think there was one messiah who wanted to take us to the promised land in the greenest fashion: piping gas form cows to run our houses taking care of methane grennhouse gas.
Good luck popularizing the message. Maybe you can get college physics and engineering disciples carry the WORD.
September 18th, 2008 at 8:59 am
Thanks, Carlos.
Maybe that energy messiah you mention is on to something.
Just last week the chair of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change–the folks who shared a Nobel Prize with Al Gore–advised us all to reduce our meat consumption because ruminant livestock, especially cows, are such large contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in the form of methane flatulence.
Hmmm…Al Gore and flatulent cows in the same sentence: Some jokes just write themselves.
September 25th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Speaking of religion, the Big Guy Himself just sent one of the biggest form of wind energy to the Cuba-Haiti, Houston-Galveston areas a couple of weeks ago (We called this particular one ‘Ike’). Unfortunately the Manufacturer’s Instructions on how to put that kind of energy to some good use must still be blowing in the wind.
If T.Boone or ANYBODY finds them and could harness (and store) that kind of power, WOW.
September 25th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Nicely put, Judy.
It underscores my underlying view about environmentalism in general and “saving the planet” in particular:
When it comes to affecting the planet, we humans are little more than gnats on an elephant’s butt, and it’s the worst sort of hubris to think otherwise.
But I have to defer to the Master, George Carlin. You can find his final word on the subject at:
http://www.armageddononline.org/Humor/george-carlin.html
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