Last week, in this space, I referred to T. Boone Pickens as a “self-serving energy messiah.”
That was not a criticism. That was a compliment. Sort of. Bear with me.
That offhand remark referred to Pickens’s recent, widely publicized “Pickens Plan” for US energy independence (http://www.pickensplan.com/). This plan entails a massive program of substituting wind energy for natural gas burned in power plants and then using the natural gas backed out of power generation to fuel motor vehicles instead of gasoline and diesel. According to the Pickens Plan (if you thought he should it give it a less self-aggrandizing name, you don’t know T. Boone), the resulting oil savings would represent more than a third of US oil imports in 10 years.
Pickens dubs the US the “Saudi Arabia of wind power” (we certainly seem to have the market cornered on windbags), claiming wind power can meet 20% of the nation’s electricity demand—vs. 1% today—in 10 years. The price tag: $1 trillion plus $200 billion for the added transmission facilities.
He also wants to see the 22% of natural gas used to fuel US power stations today diverted to natural gas vehicles (NGVs) as wind power takes up the slack. No word on the price tag or timeframe for this conversion of a big chunk of the US auto fleet and vehicular fueling infrastructure. He does claim, however, that vehicular natural gas can cost $1 per gallon. (Just curious: what kind of a gallon container can you carry natural gas in?) I’m not sure where that estimate comes from, though; the Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition (NGVC) says vehicular natural gas costs, on average, one-third less than gasoline, which puts it at just under $3 per gasoline gallon equivalent.
There are pros and cons for both proposals. Pickens cites the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for both efforts. Replacing oil with natural gas reduces oil import dependence. But at what cost? According to NGVC, converting a vehicle to run on natural gas costs $12,500 to $22,500, of which 50-80% is offset with a federal income tax credit. Just don’t count on finding an NGV filling station within your newly converted NGV’s driving range: Only a few hundred around the country are open to the public. So NGVs are best suited to commercial and public-institution fleets. NGVC estimates that “with the proper government support” (which means taxpayer-subsidized), NGVs could displace 10 billion gallons of gasoline per year. Sounds pretty good until you realize that in 10 years the US is projected to be consuming 350 billion gallons per year of all transportation fuels (yes, folks, it isn’t just gasoline that’s made from all that imported oil).
So is wind power a magic bullet? Sure it is, if you can just find that one spot where the wind blows hard 24/7 and then replicate it in, say, thousands of places around the country. Let me know when you get there—it’s just a little past Oz.
Since the wind doesn’t blow 24/7 anywhere—and energy storage technology isn’t there yet—we’ll have to build relatively inefficient (vs. baseload) backup natural gas power plants to make sure we aren’t all dying of heat stroke by candlelight in the dog days of August.
So what’s the cost for this approach? Some say it could come close to doubling electricity costs vs. that for a new coal-fired plant. Of course, that doesn’t figure in the costs of accommodating the concerns of wildlife conservation groups over the millions of birds, bats, and beneficial bugs pureed by these giant eggbeaters each year. I guess the flashing lights, sirens, and odorants will be a delightful addition to the dulcet thrum of a 100-foot-long propeller blade. And you’d better not think about planting one of these whirlygigs anywhere that it could spoil the view from Teddy Kennedy’s yacht, as the developers of what would have been the first big US offshore wind farm off Cape Cod found out.
But, what the heck, we need all the energy we can get. And I’m a big fan of entrepreneurial capitalism. So it’s OK that Pickens has substantial natural gas holdings. And that he is building the world’s biggest wind farm out in the Texas boondocks. He says he isn’t doing it for the money, since he’s worth billions, but does that mean he will return to the US Treasury the $60 million in tax credits he stands to receive for his wind farm? Does the business plan for that wind farm actually include an ROI?
To his credit, Pickens otherwise makes no bones about being a businessman and benefiting monetarily, even if he says that isn’t his main motive. And even if he says “we can’t drill our way out of this problem,” he nevertheless favors drilling offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
I have no problem with him being a self-serving energy messiah. I think we all should become self-serving energy messiahs. Only last week in this space I was preaching a sermon from the Book of Telecommuting and exhorting others to share the Truth about the Rapturous Joy of Working from Home. That was right after I filled up my gas tank at $77.
Yea, verily, I saw the Light…
July 30th, 2008 at 12:00 pm