Vehicular CNG just got another big boost.
What was the Pickens Plan is now Aubrey’s Agenda.
That’s Aubrey as in Aubrey K. McClendon, CEO and chairman of Chesapeake Energy Corp., the No. 2 independent US natural gas producer.
Just as T. Boone Pickens launched a major media rollout to promote his “Pickens Plan” to replace natural gas burned in power plants with wind power and then divert that gas to vehicular CNG, Chesapeake kicked off a big multimedia campaign dubbed “CNG Now!” Televsion and print advertising and a snazzy new website are said to serve as a “public education campaign.”
In fact, McClendon and Chesapeake talk up the Pickens Plan quite a bit, with McClendon declaring, “My good friend Boone Pickens and I agree about compressed natural gas—CNG is the best fuel to reduce America’s addiction to foreign oil.”
(I would like to take a moment here to recommend a 12-step recovery program for anyone who can’t stop referring to US oil consumption in the context of a heroin habit.)
In case there were any doubt about the Urgency for Our Nation’s Security of switching from gasoline to CNG, here’s a quote from Pickens that appeared in the Dallas Morning News:
“When we finally get this story told, you’re going to be unpatriotic if you’re using foreign oil when you don’t have to. If you have a domestic alternative, and you’re not using it, you’re unpatriotic.”
Hmmm. Guess I’ll have to go all CSI forensic on the family flivver’s gas tank to trace those cracked crude molecules back to their country of origin. I wouldn’t want to face rendition for my treasonous gasoline-swilling ways, although I hear Gitmo is lovely this time of year—assuming it hasn’t been swept away by Ike by now.
Pickens isn’t the only one in this CNG push who knows how to play hardball. McClendon wasn’t wearing kid gloves when he recently took on utilities seeking to install coal-fired power plants in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. Chesapeake funded local opposition groups and spent more than $1 million on advertising to decry the construction of what the ads termed “filthy” coal plants in states where there is suddenly an embarrassment of natural gas riches to fuel those power plants now for a long time.
I’m not sure how Aubrey and his good friend Boone are going to reconcile their differences over whether natural gas or wind energy will keep all those power plants humming. Maybe McClendon just needs to show Pickens the Navigant Consulting study that really jacked up estimates of US natural gas reserves in the wake of the booming gas shale plays: 2,247 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or a 118-year supply at 2007 demand levels. The American Clean Skies Foundation, of which McClendon is chairman, funded the Navigant study. McClendon also told Oil & Gas Journal this summer that the Navigant study, if correct, “takes a lot of pressure off us to open more of the OCS.” I’m not sure how much pressure there was on Chesapeake in that regard, since it has no OCS holdings.
Shale gas production growth has been so successful that it’s turning around the US natural gas production profile—so much so that Freeport LNG Development LP last month requested permission to re-export LNG imported into its Freeport, Tex., terminal. The culprit: lower gas prices and increased domestic production from the shale gas plays.
Is it conceivable that the much-ballyhooed North American LNG boom could fall victim to the explosion in shale gas? Or will the US still need all of that foreign gas as well to feed all the gas-fired power plants (as backup to Boone’s erratic wind power) and CNG vehicles?
Evidently McClendon is so bullish on the prospects for natural gas that he told analysts in August that Chesapeake is looking at ways to invest in US LNG export facilities because natural gas in global markets can sell for twice what it does domestically. Oops. That didn’t raise the Homeland Security threat level to magenta, did it? Don’t tell Boone.
A key part of the CNG Now! agenda is to lobby for a host of government incentives in the form of tax credits to automakers, consumers, and fuel retailers and mandates for CNG refueling pumps at all service stations owned by major oil companies. These would be designed “to incite the purchase, usage, and sale of natural gas vehicles,” according to the CNG Now! website.
Whatever the pros and cons are for vehicular CNG—and it stacks up better against gasoline than some other alternatives—it is clear that the fuel cannot compete with gasoline and increase market share without government mandates and incentives. And those mandates and incentives come with taxpayer costs—none of which are spelled out by CNG Now!
It’s no secret that Chesapeake’s core strategy is to assemble a dominant position in unconventional natural gas, notably the shale plays. Just how dominant does the company want to be? Just how much commercial shale gas is really there?
My good friend—and widely respected reserves evaluation consultant—Dr. Rafael Sandrea, who developed his own study of future oil and gas supply (yes, I’m slipping in a plug; check out the study at http://www.pennenergy.com/index/resourcecenter/reports/new_future_global.html), is still scratching his head over the Navigant numbers. The best Rafael can come up with for remaining US gas conventional and unconventional reserves is 554 tcf. Not bad, but now we’re looking at about 30 years of reserves at 2007 consumption rates—but those rates could double or triple with all these CNG vehicles and extra gas-fired power plants. So we’re down to, what, a decade or two now?
And shale gas ain’t cheap. Some of these shale plays require a gas price of more than $7/MMBTU to be economic. A show of hands, please, for anyone who can remember the gas bubble and sub-$2/Mcf gas.
So let’s review: Shale gas dominance. Check. Decline in competing gas supply from LNG imports, with possible upside for LNG exports of domestic gas. Check. Decline in competing domestic oil and gas supply from the OCS. Check. Government-mandated taxpayer support for new and expanding natural gas markets. Check.
That appears to be Aubrey’s Agenda. How does it jibe with yours?
September 11th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Other than S. Korea’s “out of touch with reality” inking of a long term contract for natural gas at $20/mcf, I haven’t seen any netbacks at twice the price of NG in the U.S. As for exporting domestic NG, I’m pretty sure we don’t have any liquification trains in the lower 48 at the moment. Moreover, I’m even more certain that Chesapeake doesn’t have the wherewithal to set any up. Having spent my 50 years in the industry during a time that was mostly slow starvation at the hands of cheap foreign crude, perhaps I can be forgiven for the viseral apprehensions I have from from time to time that LNG tankers could ultimately bring the same kind of misery to the new generation of domestic NG producers.
September 11th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Astute observations from a legendary Oklahoma independent oilman.
Thanks for your comments, Harry.
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There are two things to aim at in life; first to get what you want, and after that to enjoy it. Only the wisest of mankind has achieved the second.
December 26th, 2009 at 9:26 pm
How is the Health Care Bill REALLY going to effect the economy?
December 28th, 2009 at 9:47 am
Thank you for your help!
December 29th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
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December 30th, 2009 at 4:49 pm
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January 2nd, 2010 at 10:58 am
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January 2nd, 2010 at 11:52 pm
I usually don
January 2nd, 2010 at 11:57 pm
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January 3rd, 2010 at 9:10 am
We are all inventors, each sailing out on a voyage of discovery, guided each by a private chart, of which there is no duplicate. The world is all gates, all opportunities.
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January 7th, 2010 at 10:26 pm
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January 8th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
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January 8th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Hello Guru, what entice you to post an article. This article was extremely interesting, especially since I was searching for thoughts on this subject last Thursday.
January 10th, 2010 at 1:36 am
It is impossible to imagine anything which better becomes a ruler than mercy.
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January 13th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
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January 13th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
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January 17th, 2010 at 7:32 am
Sharing tips and advices is a good way of showing support!
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January 21st, 2010 at 12:08 pm
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January 21st, 2010 at 12:16 pm
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January 22nd, 2010 at 12:58 am
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January 22nd, 2010 at 10:16 am
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January 24th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
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January 27th, 2010 at 5:42 am
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January 27th, 2010 at 8:59 am
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January 27th, 2010 at 11:41 am
Can I order a supply 1 or 2 months in advance?
January 27th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
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January 28th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
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January 29th, 2010 at 1:30 pm
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January 29th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
The EURUSD has broken below the low floor at the 1.4066 level reaching a low at 1.4054 but has pushed back toward the break level (1.4066 ). The quick reversal is not necessarily the best reaction for the bears. However, risk remains up to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which comes in at the 1.4085 level (and moving lower - blue line in the chart above). We should see sellers against the level with stops above the moving average level.
January 30th, 2010 at 4:59 am
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January 30th, 2010 at 10:03 am
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January 31st, 2010 at 9:21 am
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January 31st, 2010 at 1:59 pm
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January 31st, 2010 at 3:29 pm
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February 1st, 2010 at 2:22 am
Another Title…
Here’s a collection of interesting posts I saw on the Internet this week…
February 2nd, 2010 at 1:01 am
Will it be alright to use on sensitive teeth?
February 2nd, 2010 at 5:04 am
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February 2nd, 2010 at 5:04 am
While I wasdoing some browsing and noticed your blog appears a bit confusedin my Konquerorinternet browser. But fortunately hardly anyone uses it any longer but you may want to look into it.
February 2nd, 2010 at 12:38 pm
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February 3rd, 2010 at 7:32 am
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February 3rd, 2010 at 1:46 pm
How fast can someone expect to lose weight?
February 3rd, 2010 at 2:17 pm
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February 3rd, 2010 at 4:23 pm
How snappy am I able to see muscle definition?
February 4th, 2010 at 1:16 am
Do you have to employ a credit card to place the order?
February 4th, 2010 at 5:04 am
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February 5th, 2010 at 9:55 am
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February 5th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Top Dog Trading Forex Program Review…
things besides the absolute necessity to improve my trading and to halt my run of losing trades; was that I understood what Dr Barry Burns…
February 5th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
Great article. There
February 6th, 2010 at 12:33 am
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February 6th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
How white will my teeth get after 1 treatment?
February 7th, 2010 at 8:02 am
Hi, how are you doing? I really like your blog! I am wondering if u might help me (I am positive some other subscribers might also be curious). I want to get involved in creating a blog also and I currently write a blog with Word Press, but it is quite confusing for me to make and I would very much like to try to get some good training materials or courses (preferably free) that can hopefully assist me in using Word Press correctly. As a word press web master yourself, do u perhaps maybe know were i can learn tutorials to be able to do this? Thanks!
February 7th, 2010 at 11:12 am
Your RSS feed doesn’t work in my browser (google chrome) how can I fix it?
February 9th, 2010 at 1:55 am
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