It’s been a hectic past 6 weeks in the tropics. One record was set with respect to U.S. landfalls. This is the first time in recorded history that the U.S. was struck by 6 consecutive named storms. Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike all struck the United States. And it could be argued that Cristobal actually made landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina back in July. Just about every coastal state was impacted by a tropical storm or hurricane in 2008, from south Texas to Maine. Hardest hit was the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Fay produced torrential rain across Florida and the southeast U.S. Gustav produced heavy damage across Texas. Ike caused significant damage across the northwest Gulf as well as across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. But even though we now have Tropical Storm Kyle out there, the tropics do seem to be quieting down a bit.
Typically, as October approaches, we see changes in the jet stream across the Atlantic Basin that affect where tropical cyclones form and where they track. Cold fronts begin to move out across the Gulf of Mexico, and the threat to the northwest Gulf diminishes. That’s what we’re seeing now. But cold fronts can also be a source of tropical development, so the threat to the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf Coast is not over yet. Currently, a cold front extends across south Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Thunderstorms have developed near the trailing end of the front across the Bay of Campeche, a prime location for late-season development. I don’t think we’ll see any development down there over the next 3-5 days, but it’s a place to keep an eye on. Don’t forget Opal of 1995, a hurricane that formed in the Bay of Campeche on September 27th, wandered around for a few days, then rapidly strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane as it raced northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle. So enjoy the quiet now across the Gulf, but keep an eye to the south for possible development over the coming weeks.
Out in the eastern Atlantic, we’re seeing increasing tropical wave activity now. But it’s getting a bit late for Cape Verde storms to form. Still, we can’t rule out something forming off the west coast of Africa over the next couple of weeks. The good news is that it would be unlikely for such a late-season Cape Verde storm to reach the Caribbean Sea or the U.S. I think that we may see another 2-3 named storms before the season ends. However, it does appear that the worst of the season is over with.
April 23rd, 2009 at 11:32 am
I personally think this is outrageous.