As I mentioned last week, hurricane activity typically drops off fast after the second to third week of October.  As I write this post early Friday morning, the temperature is in the mid 40s in southeast Texas behind a rather strong cold front that’s moved out across the Gulf of Mexico.   Westerly winds of between 70 and 100 mph are blowing across the Gulf of Mexico in the upper levels now.  Strong upper-level winds mean strong wind shear across the Gulf, and wind shear is the bane of hurricanes.  Long-range models indicate that this jet stream will remain well to the south across the Gulf of Mexico through next week at the very least.  With such flow in place, it would be impossible for the northwest Gulf to be hit by another hurricane.  So let’s just hope that jet stream remains well to the south for another few weeks.

But I’m not ready to declare with certainty that the 2008 season has ended for all locations.  There will be pockets of lower wind shear that pop up from time to time farther to the south across the southwest Caribbean Sea.    Very long-range models are forecasting an increase in thunderstorm activity in the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea during the first and second weeks of November.  So it is possible that another named storm could develop there this season.  Most, if not all, late-season storms that form in the western Caribbean Sea take a track either inland into Mexico or Central America or to the northeast across Cuba, perhaps affecting south Florida and/or the Bahamas before heading out to sea.   I don’t think that any such late-season development would likely threaten the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

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