As I mentioned last week “Those of you in south Florida, breathe half a sigh of relief for now. I’m still keeping my eye on that southwest Caribbean Sea. We still need to monitor that area for possible development for another few weeks. Anything developing down there still has a chance of impacting south Florida.“ Well, earlier this week, an area of thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean Sea developed into Tropical Depression Seventeen, which has now become Hurricane Paloma, the sixteenth hurricane of the 2008 season.
Fortunately for those of us in the U.S., Paloma won’t be any threat. Cold fronts are moving regularly across the Gulf of Mexico now, far enough south to protect even south Florida from Paloma’s effects. But it’s going to be a rough next 36 hours across the Cayman Islands, as Paloma will very likely be a major Category 3 hurricane with 115-120 mph winds as it moves right across Grand Cayman Island tonight. As of noon local time Friday, Grand Cayman Island was reporting winds of 35 mph gusting 45 mph as Paloma’s outer bands move across the island.
Beyond tonight, Paloma will start feeling the influence of that approaching cold front, resulting in a turn to the northeast and inland across eastern Cuba Saturday night/Sunday morning. Models disagree somewhat on Paloma’s fate beyond Sunday. One camp accelerates a weakening Paloma out to sea to the northeast. The other group of models dissipates Paloma near the Bahamas and can’t figure out what to do with Paloma’s remnant low. Either way, I think it’s unlikely that Paloma would survive as a hurricane to impact the Bahamas after crossing Cuba. It could produce tropical storm conditions across the central to eastern Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands late Sunday and Monday, though.
What about the rest of the season? There are only 3 more weeks left to the 2008 hurricane season, officially. While I don’t see any more disturbances moving off the west coast of Africa that might track into the Caribbean Sea, long-range models continue to indicate increased thunderstorms across the southwest Caribbean. This is particularly true after about the 16th of November when another cold front pulls up stationary in the southwest Caribbean.
It’s possible another storm may develop in the southwest Caribbean the third or fourth week of November. However, chances of it impacting the northwest Gulf are close to zero. Even south Florida should be in the clear by then. With any luck, Paloma will mark the end of the 2008 hurricane season.
I still do plan to write an end-of-season wrap up here. But with Paloma still out there and the possible development of one more storm, I think I’ll wait another couple of weeks.
