In my last post, I compared the 10-day forecasts from the American GFS, Canadian model and the European model for then Tropical Disturbance 33 which became major Hurricane Bill. Of all the models, there was only one model that kept Bill safely northeast of the Caribbean and well off the East U.S. Coast. That model was the European. In 2008, the European model topped all models for each time period from the 12-hr forecast to 120 hours. So far, the European model is off to a very good start with Hurricane Bill.
European Model Forecast Bill’s Actual Track
As you can see from the 10-day European forecast on the left and Bill’s actual track on the right, Bill passed safely northeast of the Caribbean and well off the coast of New England, just as the European model forecast. The Canadian and American GFS models were just wrong, as were most of the truly tropical models (GFDL and HWRF). So let’s keep an eye on the European model this year. Speaking of which, the European model does see another possible development in the tropics later this week.
Tropical Disturbance 35, an easterly wave that’s interacting with an upper level low a few hundred miles northeast of the Caribbean may well develop into the next named storm. The GFS, Canadian and European models all indicate some development of this disturbance east of the Bahamas in 2-3 days (Wednesday or Thursday). All three models indicate a similar track for now. The European and Canadian models indicate a threat to North Carolina with the storm moving northward up the East U.S. Coast on Friday and Saturday. The GFS indicates a weaker system tracking to the north, well off the East U.S. Coast. None of the models is indicating a very strong storm, though.
Let’s see how this one plays out. Can the Canadian and GFS models beat the European model this time? We’ll see!
