On Monday, models were in good agreement that the disturbance in the southwest Caribbean would track northward, develop into a tropical cyclone, and possibly impact south Florida and/or the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center identified this disturbance as Invest 94L early yesterday morning and gave it a less than 30% chance of developing over the next 48 hours. I agreed with that assessment, thinking that the greater chance of development would come beyond that 48 hour time frame, probably this Friday or Saturday. All that was left was to wait and watch for signs of organization.
By late last night, it was looking less likely that the system would develop in the western Caribbean. Thunderstorms were no more organized than on Monday, and the mid level rotation center had moved to the coast of Nicaragua. It was the European model (ECMWF) which had been most bullish on development over the past 3-4 days. In my last post here, I’d shown some model projections valid next Monday evening. Let’s take a look at what the models are indicating now. First, the ECMWF:
As you can see - nothing! Just a cold front across the eastern Gulf. No storm threatening Florida. The European model has given up on the idea of development in the western Caribbean. Not so for the American GFS, model, though:
The American GFS model still develops a storm in the NW Caribbean, but it’s much slower with development compared to previous runs. And beyond next Monday evening, the GFS has a cold front moving down into the southern Gulf, killing off the storm before it enters the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS often does such things (developing spurious lows), particularly beyond about 5-7 days. It’s now the only model indicating any development of the system, and then it dissipates it almost as quickly as it develops the storm. I don’t think that the GFS model has a good handle on what’s going to happen.
What is going to happen down there in the southwest Caribbean? I created to demonstrate what I think is happening. Looking at the loop, below, rotation is clearly evident over southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica, but it appears that the main rotation center is shifting westward out into the East Pacific, west of Costa Rica. I identified the area where I think a tropical depression may form with the yellow circle.
Such development is common in the region. Tropical waves often flare up in the West Caribbean only to finally develop in the East Pacific. Occasionally, a storm will develop on either side of Central America. But I don’t think that will be the case this time. I think that the disturbance will re-focus in the East Pacific and develop there. If you live in south Florida or the Bahamas, then you can breathe a little easier now. But don’t completely turn your back on this system until it’s fully inland into Central America.
November 3rd, 2009 at 9:06 am
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