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Impact Weather: Your Weather Department

Chris Hebert
Chris Hebert,  ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster
With a B.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University and more than 27 years of forecasting experience, Chris is ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster. For a detailed bio…

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Hurricane Season is Fast-Approaching - Revised Outlook June 1st
May 25th, 2010
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We’re just 5 days from the official start of the 2010 hurricane season as I write this.   Though wind shear across the tropics remains a bit high, sea surface temperatures continue to warm quite rapidly.    There’s even a disturbance off the Southeast U.S. Coast that we’re monitoring for possible subtropical development.   The NHC has issued several statements on this disturbance, indicating a 20-30 percent chance that it might acquire enough tropical characteristics to be named Subtropical Storm Alex.

The good news is that this disturbance won’t have too much of an impact on the East U.S. Coast regardless of whether or not it becomes organized enough to get named.    Just looking at the satellite picture this morning, the low center does look better organized than over the past 2-3 days, but that was to be expected given that the models had always been forecasting that the low would reach peak intensity/organization today and tomorrow.  But I think that the water temperatures are still a bit too cool east of the Carolinas and the wind shear is just a little too strong there for the disturbance to become organized enough to get named.   So it’ll cause some increased northeasterly winds across coastal sections of the Carolinas and Virginia over the next few days before it heads off to the east and out to sea, but that’s about it.   Unfortunately, there’s not such good news as far as the 2010 hurricane season.

We’re putting the finishing touches on our updated outlook for the 2010 season this week.  We’ve scheduled a webinar to present our latest updated seasonal outlook for the opening day of the 2010 hurricane season - June 1st.   The webinar is free.   You can register at the link below:

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/855520688

See you there!

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