A feature that we’ve identified as the 16^th tropical disturbance of the 2010 hurricane season is located near the northern Yucatan Peninsula as of noon Tuesday, as can be seen in the satellite image below.  In a normal hurricane season, such a disorganized disturbance would get less attention.  But given the expectations for the high level of activity in the 2010 season, and considering the present activity off the southeast Louisiana coast, everyone across the northern Gulf is paying very close attention to any tropical threat.

Currently, the disturbance remains disorganized.  In fact, the disturbance is less organized than it was a few days ago.  The problem is that it is forecast to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.  Once there, it’s potentially less than 24  hours away from impacting offshore operators.  Though we are currently estimating the chances for any significant development at no more than 30%, the fact that any development would most likely come with very little time for offshore operators and onshore facilities to to prepare is making everyone nervous.

I went back through the Atlantic hurricane database and identified all hurricanes which actually formed in the Gulf of Mexico since 1940.  As you can see in the image below, there were quite a few hurricanes which actually developed inside the Gulf of Mexico, many of which just a day or two from making landfall somewhere in Mexico or along the northern Gulf Coast.  Such close-in developments leave very little time for preparations.  And although the disturbance is clearly advertised as one with a 30% chance of developing, most companies are reluctant to activate their hurricane plans until the disturbance does indeed develop and get a name.

So what do I think is going to become of this disturbance?  I think that it will track toward the northwest as forecast, probably reaching the upper Texas coast by late Thursday as a disorganized area of thunderstorms.  Associated squalls will produce gusty winds and rough seas offshore on Thursday and Friday.  Inland, the disturbance will produce areas of heavy rainfall across Texas and possibly eastward into Louisiana.  That’s the most likely scenario, anyway.

But if it does take the least likely course and develop into a tropical storm, then that won’t happen until probably late tomorrow or on Thursday, not long before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast.  Fortunately, the close-in development will leave little time for intensification before the center moves inland.  This would limit the chance of the disturbance reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall.

There is not much to do now but continue to closely monitor this disturbance as it moves away from the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday.  That’s something we’ll likely be doing a lot of this season.

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