Comments on: Where Are All the Hurricanes? http://www.pennwellblogs.com/tropics_watch/2010-08-18/where-are-all-the-hurricanes/ A PennEnergy Blog Mon, 21 May 2012 14:18:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Chris Hebert http://www.pennwellblogs.com/tropics_watch/2010-08-18/where-are-all-the-hurricanes/#comment-58181 Chris Hebert Wed, 15 Sep 2010 14:07:15 +0000 http://www.pennwellblogs.com/tropics_watch/2010-08-18/where-are-all-the-hurricanes/#comment-58181 Earlier in the season, I would have said that the chances of Florida being hit were a fair bit higher than of Texas being hit. And it's probably still true that Florida has a better chance of being hit than Texas, but not much better. We've seen a number of hits in NE Mexico this season. All it would take would be a weaker high pressure across the Gulf Coast for Texas to be hit. In fact, the long-range GFS model has been forecasting a Texas coast hit in late September for the last few runs. But as summer changes to fall, I expect the Gulf and Caribbean to be the active part of the Basin. And typically, late September and October hurricanes threaten the southeastern U.S. I don't think that region is even close to being out of the woods. Earlier in the season, I would have said that the chances of Florida being hit were a fair bit higher than of Texas being hit. And it’s probably still true that Florida has a better chance of being hit than Texas, but not much better. We’ve seen a number of hits in NE Mexico this season. All it would take would be a weaker high pressure across the Gulf Coast for Texas to be hit. In fact, the long-range GFS model has been forecasting a Texas coast hit in late September for the last few runs. But as summer changes to fall, I expect the Gulf and Caribbean to be the active part of the Basin. And typically, late September and October hurricanes threaten the southeastern U.S. I don’t think that region is even close to being out of the woods.

]]> By: Prerak Dave http://www.pennwellblogs.com/tropics_watch/2010-08-18/where-are-all-the-hurricanes/#comment-58024 Prerak Dave Thu, 19 Aug 2010 15:33:33 +0000 http://www.pennwellblogs.com/tropics_watch/2010-08-18/where-are-all-the-hurricanes/#comment-58024 Hello Mr. Hebert, Very interesting and informative post. I enjoy your tropical posts. Quick question. Your last sentence regarding steering currents favors gulf and southeast landfalls. What chance do you say Florida (in comparison to Texas and Carolinas) has of being hit due to the steering currents and positioning of the High in the coming months? Thanks Hello Mr. Hebert,

Very interesting and informative post. I enjoy your tropical posts. Quick question. Your last sentence regarding steering currents favors gulf and southeast landfalls.

What chance do you say Florida (in comparison to Texas and Carolinas) has of being hit due to the steering currents and positioning of the High in the coming months?

Thanks

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