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Impact Weather: Your Weather Department

Chris Hebert
Chris Hebert,  ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster
With a B.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University and more than 27 years of forecasting experience, Chris is ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster. For a detailed bio…

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The Atlantic Basin Springs to Life - Earl Threatens U.S. East Coast
September 1st, 2010
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Over the past few weeks, I wrote about the tropics being on the verge of becoming quite active.  The models that were indicating a flurry of activity across the Tropical Atlantic two weeks ago were quite right.   Fortunately, Hurricane Danielle did turn northward to the east of the Caribbean Sea without affecting any land areas.  But now we have Earl, Fiona and the newly-named Tropical Depression Nine (soon to be “Gaston”) to worry about.  First, let’s discuss Hurricane Earl.  Our latest track is shown below.

Earl’s Forecast Track
Hurricane Earl

Currently, Earl is a Category 3 hurricane with winds of between 125 mph.  Although Earl is forecast to make a northerly turn just before reaching the coast of North Carolina tomorrow evening, there is some degree of uncertainty as to the timing of the turn.  The approaching cold front that is forecast to pick up Earl and turn it to the north could arrive a few hours too late, or Earl could speed up a little over the next 24 hours.  Either scenario could result in a major hurricane impact along the Mid Atlantic Coast tomorrow night.  So even though the forecast keeps hurricane force winds just offshore, residents from North Carolina to coastal Maine should be prepared for hurricane conditions from Thursday night through early Saturday morning.

To the southeast of Earl is Tropical Storm Fiona.  The good news for the folks across the northeast Caribbean which just experienced Earl is that Fiona is much weaker, and most of Fiona’s heavy squalls are passing just northeast of the islands.  The future of Fiona is quite uncertain.  Our forecast has it slowing and weakening due to strong shear just southwest of Bermuda in 3-4 days.  However, high pressure could build to its north over the coming weekend.  This could help to reduce the wind shear and allow Fiona to reach hurricane strength as it drifts slowly to the west.   We still think that Fiona would probably not be a threat to the U.S. East Coast if this happens, though.

Tropical Storm Fiona Track
Tropical Storm Fiona

And if that’s not enough, there is the newly-formed Tropical Depression Nine - soon to become Tropical Storm Gaston in the central Tropical Atlantic.   What’s strange about this depression is that most of the models don’t appear to even see that it’s there. I can assure you, it’s there!   But there is some question as to whether or not wind shear and dry air in its path will allow it to reach hurricane strength.   We think that by the time it nears the northeast Caribbean next Tuesday or Wednesday it could very well be a hurricane.  It’s way to early to even speculate on whether or not it will become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico or the U.S. East Coast, however.

TD Nine Track
Tropical Depression Nine

Well, that should probably wrap up development chances for this week, right?  Well, maybe you should take a look just a little east of Tropical Depression Nine at what’s about to roll off the coast of Africa.  Take a look at the image below.  Behind tropical depression are 4 more very strong tropical waves all lined up across Africa.   All are moving westward toward the Tropical Atlantic.    At least one or two of these strong waves could well be developing over the next 5-10 days.  And with high pressure building across the North Atlantic, there may be a good chance that one of these systems could impact the Caribbean Sea and possibly reach the Gulf of Mexico.

African Waves

I mentioned in previous posts that the analog seasons for 2010 all indicated a somewhat late start.  That certainly looks to be the case.   And with a moderate to strong La Nina in place in the Pacific and very warm water all across the Atlantic Basin, I think that the 2010 season will last well into November this year.  Don’t expect things to shut down rapidly after early October as they did in 2009.

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