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Impact Weather: Your Weather Department

Chris Hebert
Chris Hebert,  ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster
With a B.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University and more than 27 years of forecasting experience, Chris is ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster. For a detailed bio…

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Major Hurricane in the Caribbean Next Week?
October 15th, 2010
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All the main global models have come on board forecasting the development of the 17th storm of the 2010 hurricane season in the southwest Caribbean next week.  The southwest Caribbean is the place where late-season development typically occurs, so this is something to be expected, particularly during a strong La Nina season.  Our best 2010 analog season, 1998, featured Category 5 Hurricane Mitch developing in the southwest Caribbean on the 22nd of October.  Mitch killed over 20,000 people in Central America and southern Mexico.  And in 2005, another analog for 2010, Hurricane Wilma, the strongest hurricane in Atlantic Basin history, formed in the southwest Caribbean on October 15th.

With such model support for development, I think we may well see a storm develop to the east of Nicaragua around next Tuesday, October 19th.  Question is, where will it go?  I can tell you where it isn’t likely to go - the northwest or north-central Gulf of Mexico.  Persistent and rather strong mid and upper-level westerly wind flow across the central to northern Gulf of Mexico would steer any tropical cyclone moving out of the northwest Caribbean Sea almost immediately to the northeast toward south Florida or the Bahamas.   And that may well be the fate of this potential storm.

Long-range models predict a rather deep trof and associated cold front across the eastern U.S. toward the end of next week.  Such a feature would mean that steering currents could pick up anything developing in the western Caribbean and carry it northwest toward central to western Cuba by next Friday or Saturday.  With the trof/front in place across the southeastern U.S., the storm could track to the north-northeast or northeast, possibly threatening southern Florida and/or the Bahamas before racing northward and out to sea.  I think that this might be the most likely track of the storm should it develop.  But there is another possibility - it could be blocked by high pressure building in behind the cold front to the north and shoved westward into Central America and/or southern Mexico, as was Hurricane Mitch in 1998.

As for its potential intensity, conditions aloft look quite favorable for strengthening next week.  And with oceanic heat content quite high across the western and northwest Caribbean, any storm developing in the region next week could easily become a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane.  I’d say possibly a Category 5, but I’m a bit wary of the fact that conditions across the region have been a little unfriendly toward development for some reason that we don’t understand this season.

Residents of the western Caribbean islands, South Florida and the Bahamas should pay close attention to the tropics over the coming days, as your season is not likely over just yet.

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    {Very nice|Excellent|Pleasant|Great} colors & theme.
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    It’s on a {completely|entirely|totally} different {topic|subject} but it has
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    {I like|I love|I really like} {all the|all of the} points
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    My {coder|programmer|developer} is trying to {persuade|convince} me to move to .net from PHP.
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    {Hello|Hi} there, {simply|just} {turned into|became|was|become|changed into} {aware of|alert to} your {blog|weblog} {thru|through|via} Google, {and found|and located} that {it is|it’s} {really|truly}
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    your {blog|weblog}. Is this a paid theme or did you {customize|modify} it
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    {may|might|could|would} {check|test} this? IE {still|nonetheless}
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    writing {due to|because of} this problem.|
    {I’m|I am} not sure where {you are|you’re} getting your {info|information},
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    Thanks for {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent} {information|info} I was
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    mission.|
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    {
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    llot more} useful than ever before.|
    I {couldn’t|could not} {resist|refrain from} commenting.
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    {Please|Kindly} {allow|permit|let} me {realize|recognize|understand|recognise|know} {so that|in order that} I {may just|may|could} subscribe.
    Thanks.|
    {It is|It’s} {appropriate|perfect|the best} time to make somke plans
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    {I have|I’ve} been {surfing|browsing} {online|on-line} {more
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    {It’s|It is} {lovely|pretty|beautiful} {worth|value|price}
    {enough|sufficient} for me. {In my opinion|Personally|In my view}, if alll {webmasters|site
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    {much more|a lot more} {useful|helpful} than ver before.|
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    {article|post|piece oof writing|paragraph} {here|at this place} at this {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web site},
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    I am sure this {article|post|piece of writing|paragraph} has touched all the internet {users|people|viewers|visitors}, its really really {nice|pleasant|good|fastidious} {article|post|piece off writing|paragraph} on building up new {blog|weblog|webpage|website|web
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    Way cool! Some {very|extremely} valid points! I appreciate you {writing this|penning this} {article|post|write-up} {and the|and
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    Money and freedom {is thhe best|is the greatest} way to change, may you be rich and
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    Woah! I’m really {loving|enjoying|digging}
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    {Superb|Exceptional|Outstanding|Excellent} Blog!|
    These are {really|actually|in fact|truly|genuinely} {great|enormous|impressive|wonderful|fantastic} ideas in {regarding|concerning|about|on the topoic of} blogging.
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    {I love|I really like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves} what you guhys {are|are usually|tend to be} uup too.
    {Thiis sort of|This type of|Such|Thiis kind of} clever work and {exposure|coverage|reporting}!
    Keep upp the {superb|terrific|very good|great|good|awesome|fantastic|excellent|amazing|wonderful}
    works guys I’ve {incorporated||added|included} you guys to {|my|our||my
    personal|my own} blogroll.|
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    Someone in my {Myspace|Facebook} group shared this {site|website} with us soo I came tto {give it a look|look it over|take a look|check it out}.

    I’m definitely {enjoying|loving} the information. I’m {book-marking|bookmarking} and
    will be tweeting this to my followers! {Terrific|Wonderful|Great|Fantastic|Outstanding|Exceptional|Superb|Excellent} blog and {wonderful|terrific|brilliant|amazing|great|excellent|fantastic|outstanding|superb} {style and design|design and style|design}.|
    {I love|Ireally like|I enjoy|I like|Everyone loves} what yoou guys
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    {Howdy|Hi there|Hey there|Hi|Hello|Hey} would you mind {stating|sharing} which blog platform
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    own blog {in the near future|soon} bbut I’m having a {tough|difficult|hard} time {making a decision|selecting|choosing|deciding} between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal.
    The reason I ask is because your {design and style|design|layout}
    sewms different then most blogs and I’m looking for something
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    ffor {getting|being} off-topic but I had to ask!|
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    know which {webhost|hosting company|web host} you’re {utilizing|working with|using}?

    I’ve loaded your blog in 3 {completely different|different} {internet browsers|web browsers|browsers} and I must sayy this blog loads
    a lot {quicker|faster} then most. Can you {suggest|recommend}
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    {Thanks a lot|Kudos|Cheers|Thank you|Many thanks|Thanks}, I appreciate
    it!|
    {I love|I really like|I like|Everyone loves} it {when people|when individuals|when folks|whenever people} {come together|get
    together} and share {opinions|thoughts|views|ideas}. Great {blog|website|site}, {keep
    it up|continue the gokd work|stick with it}!|
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    explorer|Chrome|Firefox|Safari|Opera}. I’m not sure if
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    The {style andd design|design and style|layout|design} look
    great though! Hopee you get the {problem|issue} {solved|resolved|fixed} soon. {Kudos|Cheers|Many thanks|Thanks}|
    This is a topic {that is|that’s|which is} {close to|near to} my heart…
    {Cheers|Many thanks|Best wishes|Take care|Thank you}! {Where|Exactly where} are your contact details
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    {Pretty sure|Fairly certain} {he will|he’ll|he’s going to}
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    {I just|I simply} {would liike to|want to|wish to} {give you a|offer you a} {huge|big} thumbs up {for the|for
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    {Hi|Hello} there, {I found|I discovered} your {blog|website|web site|site} {by means
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    {I’m|I am} {gonna|going to} {watch out|be careful} for
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    {A llot of|Lots of|Many|Numerous} {other folks|folks|other people|people} {will be|shall be|might be|will probably be|can be|will likely be} benefited {from
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    {I am|I’m} curious to find ouut what blog {system|platform} {youhave been|you happen to be|you are|you’re} {working with|utilizing|using}?
    I’m {experiencing|having} sopme {minor|small} security {problems|issues}
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    Do you have any {solutions|suggestions|recommendations}?|
    {I am|I’m} {extremely|really} impressed with your writihg skills
    {and also|as well as} with thhe layout on your {blog|weblog}.
    Is this a paid theme or did you {customize|modify} it yourself?
    {Either way|Anyway} keep up the {nice|excellent} quality writing, {it’s|it is} rare to see a {nice|great} blog
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    {I am|I’m}{extremely|really} {inspired|impressed} {with your|together with your|along
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    {and also|as {smartly|well|neatly} as} with thhe {layout|format|structure} {for your|on your|in your|to your} {blog|weblog}.
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    {Eithwr way|Anyway} {stay|keep} up the {nice|excellent} {quality|high quality} writing,{it’s|it is} {rare|uncommon} {to peer|to see|to look} a {nice|great} {blog|weblog}
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    {Hi|Hello}, Neat post. {There is|There’s} {a problem|an issue} {with your|together with
    your|along with your} {site|web site|website} in {internet|web} explorer,
    {may|might|could|would} {check|test} this? IE {still|nonetheless} iis the {marketplace|market}{leader|chief} and {a large|a good|a big|a huge} {part of|section of|component to|portion of|component
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    {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent} writing {due to|because
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    {I’m|I am} not sure where {you are|you’re} getting your {info|information}, but {good|great} topic.
    I needs to spend some time learning {more|much more} or understanding
    more. Thanks for {great|wonderful|fantastic|magnificent|excellent} {information|info} I was
    looking for this {information|info} for my mission.|
    {Hi|Hello}, i think that i saw you visited my {blog|weblog|website|site} {so|thus} i came to _return the favor_.{I am|I’m} {trying to|attempting to} find things
    to {improve|enhance} my {website|site|web site}!I suppose its ok to usse {some of|a few of}
    your idea\

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