<< Return to Full (Formatted) Post

Will Tropical Storm Richard Threaten the Northern Gulf of Mexico?

October 22nd, 2010
This post is filed under the following categories:
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.

The seventeenth named storm of the 2010 hurricane season is now churning around in the western Caribbean Sea.  Tropical Storm Richard is located about 150 miles east of Honduras with 40 mph winds.  Satellite imagery indicates that Richard is becoming better organized today, as wind shear has decreased significantly during the past 24 hours.  Question is, will Richard pose a serious threat to either the Bay of Campeche or the northern Gulf of Mexico?

It did look like Richard might have a chance to impact the northeast Gulf yesterday, but those chances are decreasing.  High pressure is building across the northwest Gulf a little more strongly than had been forecast.  This should keep Richard on a west to west-northwesterly track up until its landfall in Belize on Monday.  With a favorable environment for intensification over the next 60-72 hours, Richard will quite likely reach hurricane strength by Sunday, and possibly even major hurricane strength of 115 mph winds before it moves inland.  That is, if it stays to the north of the coast of Honduras, which is no by no means a certainty.

Where will Richard go beyond the next few days?  Before I answer that, let’s have a look at some past storm climatology.  It’s always interesting to see where past storms that were located in the same area eventually tracked.  In the image below, I plotted all storms since 1851 that moved to within 85 miles of Richard’s current position during the months of October and November.

1851-2009 October/November Storms Passing Within 85 Miles of Richard’s Current Location

Note that the vast majority of October/November storms in the western Caribbean Sea tracked northward toward Cuba and eventually Florida and/or the Bahamas. But that won’t likely be the case with Richard, as high pressure is forecast to build over Florida by next week, keeping Richard away from the state.  Earlier this week, we thought that Richard might track toward the Florida Panhandle by next Thursday.  Note on the image above that the last time a storm took such a track from Richard’s current position was in 1916.  So it doesn’t happen often.  And Texas has never been hit from a storm in Richard’s current location.   So much for climatology, let’s take a look at where the latest computer models say that Richard might go.

Computer Model Forecasts for Richard as of 7AM CDT October 22

It seems that all of the models are in much better agreement today.  They all now see that the high pressure center over the northern Gulf over the next 3-5 days will be stronger than was previously forecast.  That should keep Richard farther to the south, preventing any turn toward the southern Gulf over the next 2-3 days.   I think that after Richard moves inland into Central America on Monday morning, it may well survive to reach the eastern Bay of Campeche late next Tuesday.  Once in the Bay of Campeche, though, it may not be able to survive for too long.

The reason for that is a moderate cold front that is forecast to push off the Texas coast late Wednesday and reach the southwest Gulf and Bay of Campeche on Thursday.  What’s left of Richard will most likely entrain cooler, drier air and merge with the frontal boundary rather than intensify and head off to the north or northeast.

Will Richard be the final storm of the 2010 season? Probably not.  There are still five weeks to go in the season, and some of the long range models are already hinting at another storm developing in the eastern Caribbean Sea by late next week.  When all is said and done, the 2010 season may end with 18 or 19 named storms, making it one of the five most active on record, and the most active on record without a U.S. hurricane landfall.

You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.


29 Responses to “Will Tropical Storm Richard Threaten the Northern Gulf of Mexico?”

  1. http://myboobs4you.com Says:

    Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point.

    You obviously know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your
    blog when you could be giving us something enlightening to

  2. Photo - Schmuck Brautdokumentation informal Says:

    Hello there I am so glad I found your website, I really
    found you by mistake, while I was researching on Digg for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say kudos for
    a tremendous post and a all round interesting blog (I also love
    the theme/design), I don’t have time to read through it all at the moment but I have
    saved it and also added your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be
    back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the awesome

  3. Betsey Says:

    Never would have thunk I would find this so inedapinssble.

  4. myboobs4you.com Says:

    I savor, result in I discovered exactly what I used to be having
    a look for. You’ve ended my 4 day long hunt! God Bless you man.

    Have a great day. Bye

  5. Youtube: Fach-Youtubebeschreibung Says:

    Thanks designed for sharing such a pleasant thought, post is fastidious, thats why i have read it

  6. Emma Says:

    Many customers don’t trouble to examine their coverages, depending rather on which the representative informs them or a succinct summation that might be provided from the insurance QuotesChimp. And let us encounter it: the writing of an insurance plan isn’t precisely Eliminated Against the Wind (even though it might appear equally as extended).

  7. on their webpage Says:

    Fantastic information on this unique topic.

  8. best vacuums 2014 Says:

    A vacuum-cleaner is the top of cleaning tools; it can also
    be the more expensive. You’ll find several different sorts of vacuum with several different attributes.

    So prior to buying a premier hoover be sure to
    know what form of vacuum is ideal to your requirements.

    Selecting the best vacuum can be confounding. To help make issues better
    you should be aware of what the different kinds of hoover
    are, what the key characteristics it’s possible to find on a vacuum-cleaner, and
    want you type of floors you’ll be employing a hoover on.

  9. форум вампиров Says:

    Howdy, I believe your website may be having internet
    browser compatibility issues. When I take a look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it’s got some overlapping issues.
    I simply wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, great website!

  10. best dating sites Says:

    I know this website provides quality based articles and
    extra material, is there any other web site which provides
    these kinds of stuff in quality?

  11. best dating sites Says:

    Howdy, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just curious if you get a lot of
    spam remarks? If so how do you stop it, any plugin or anything you can recommend?
    I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy so any assistance is very much appreciated.

  12. русская аптека Says:

    Keеp on working, great јߋb!

  13. match.com Says:

    Excellent post. I was checking continuously this blog and I am impressed!
    Extremely helpful info specifically the last part :) I care for such info much.
    I was seeking this particular info for a long time. Thank you
    and best of luck.

  14. match.com Says:

    Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the web the easiest thing to be aware of.
    I say to you, I certainly get irked while people think
    about worries that they plainly do not know about. You managed to hit the nail
    upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without
    having side effect , people could take a signal. Will likely be back to get more.

  15. RaeleneYDirth Says:

    Fantastic beat ! I would like to apprentice at the same time
    as you amend your website, how can i subscribe for a weblog web site?
    The account helped me a applicable deal. I were a little bit familiar of this your broadcast offered vibrant clear idea

  16. TrumanNCereo Says:

    Hello there! This post could not be written any
    better! Reading through this post reminds me of my old room mate!
    He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this page to him.
    Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

  17. quest bars Says:

    Spot on with this write-up, I seriously feel
    this site needs much more attention. I’ll probably be returning to read more, thanks
    for the information!

  18. quest bars Says:

    Definitely believe that which you said. Your favorite justification appeared to be on the net the simplest thing to be aware of.
    I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people consider worries that they just don’t know about.

    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out
    the whole thing without having side effect , people could take a
    signal. Will probably be back to get more. Thanks

  19. quest bars Says:

    We’re a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community.
    Your web site provided us with valuable information to work on. You’ve done an impressive job
    and our entire community will be thankful to you.

  20. minecraft games Says:

    What’s up to every , for the reason that I am in fact eager
    of reading this webpage’s post to be updated daily. It consists of good information.

  21. Clubds.com Says:

    I һave been exploring for a littlе bit for any high quality articlds oг blоg posts
    in this kind of space . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon thіs
    website. Reading ths info So i’m happy tⲟ exhibit that I have an incredibly excellent uncanny feeling I
    discovered juѕt whɑt I needed. I most definitely will make sure to don?t foгyet this sitе and provides it a glance regulaгly.

  22. Make jewelry for money from home Says:

    Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wihed to say that I’ve truly enjoyed surfing around your blog posts.
    After alll I will be subscribing to yoour rss feed
    and I hope yoou write again very soon!

  23. Kaycie Says:

    i co&8#nudl217;t agree with you more, its pissing me off quite frankly like 10 different people uploading the same video about 2k13 and most of them just do it for views, i wouldn’t believe them when they say they want to get info out to the viewers its all bull

  24. Dayana Says:

    claudia Daniele disse:eu queria saber como faço para assistir o filme se tem essa propaganda atadprlhanao o play , alguem por favor pode me ajudar

  25. st patricks day t shirt Says:

    Having said that you opt to celebrate your eating and drinking ‘ the green, it is
    the Irish-inspired recipes that are the entertaining issues to serve on St.

    Patrick’s Day that will preserve your wee leprechauns delightfully returning for extra!

  26. Http://Numerologicalnumbers.Com/Tag/8-In-Numerology Says:

    Hi my friend! I wish to say that this post is awesome, nice
    written and come wirh approximately all vital infos.
    I’d like to look more posts like this .

  27. Minecraft Games Says:

    Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before but after going through some
    of the posts I realized it’s new to me. Nonetheless, I’m certainly delighted I stumbled upon it and I’ll be
    book-marking it and checking back frequently!

  28. Make Jewelry For A Living Says:

    This post will assist the internet viewers for buillding up
    nnew blog or even a weblog from start to end.

  29. make jewelry For money from home Says:

    Excellent, what a weblog itt is! This webpage preesents valuable data to
    us, keep it up.

Leave a Reply

Security Code: